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MRN:
23 MEXICO 2544
Date/DTG:
Sep 16, 2023 / 160150Z SEP 23
From:
AMEMBASSY MEXICO
Action:
WASHDC, SECSTATE Routine
E.O:
13526
TAGS:
PGOV, PREL, ASEC, TSPA, KJUS, KCRM, MX
Captions:
Reference:
A) 23 MEXICO 2468
B) 23 MEXICO 2166
C) 23 MEXICO 2346
Subject:
(U) Mexico: Weekly Political Blotter, Sep 11-15
(U) Mexico: Weekly Political Blotter, Sep 11-15
1. ~
This edition of Mission Mexico's Political Blotter features:
•
Ebrard Challenges MORENA Election, Threatens to Leave Party
•
INE Names Commission Members Ahead of 2024 Election
•
Mexico City Security Secretary Steps Down, Might Run for Mexico
City Head of Government
•
Pablo Vazquez Becomes Mexico City's New Security Secretary
•
Former MORENA Senate Leader Ricardo Monreal Will Not Run for
Mexico City Head of Government
•
Criminals Targeting and Killing Prosecutors in Guerrero
•
Guadalajara Mayor Launches Gubernatorial Campaign
•
Mexican Congress Hears Testimony on Alien Life
fS8¼::ij Ebrard Challenges MORENA Election, Threatens to Leave Party
2. ~
Former Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard announced September 11 he
would challenge the results of MORENA's presidential contender selection
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process, alleging irregularities. On September 10, Sonora Governor and MORENA
National Council President Alfonso Durazo formally certified the results of the
party's selection process; while Durazo indicated he would continue to examine
Ebrard's complaints, he also indicated he did not assess that the end results
would change in light of Ebrard's allegations. Ebrard said he expected the
MORENA Honesty and Justice Committee (responsible for solving intra-party
conflicts) to hear his challenge, but also added he would "not be interested in
remaining in MORENA" if the party rejected his allegations. He announced he
would travel across the country starting September 18 to meet with supporters
and formalize the creation of a new national political movement. Some outlets
reported Ebrard created a new political party, but electoral laws would not allow
this until 2026.
3. ~
Comment: Having moved on from its contender selection process,
MORENA is unlikely to validate any of Ebrard's challenges and therefore his
options seem limited: he could join Citizen's Movement (MC) as its presidential
candidate (despite some strong opposition within MC, especially from the party's
Jalisco wing), remain with and create a new "Ebrardista current" within MORENA,
or join the opposition Broad Front alliance. He cannot form a new party in time
for the June 2024 elections, and the last day to register as an independent
candidate (September 8) came and went without his taking action. His latest
statements and attacks on MORENA's leadership however, increasingly make it
impossible for him to remain in the party: the party has certified Sheinbaum as its
candidate, Sheinbaum has embarked on a nationwide tour, and there is no sign
whatsoever that there will be a do-over of the poll, as Ebrard desires. Ebrard
retains the support of dozens of MORENA and allied party legislators, but even
they seem reluctant to leave the party, which limits his leverage. End comment.
fS8¼:ij INE Names Commission Members Ahead of 2024 Election
4. ~
The INE council approved the designation of presidents and members of
key INE commissions September 9 who will oversee the 2024 elections. After a
contentious session where some councilors seemed at odds on the designations
(pro-MORENA councilors opposing anti-MORENA councilors, according to
analysts), INE agreed on the makeup of the commissions that will be in place until
September 2024. Analysts considered the designations a defeat for MORENA
because, although its bloc obtained the presidency of key commissions (for
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example the auditing commission, tasked with reviewing party expenditures), the
pro-MORENA bloc still does not have a majority in them. Notably, the complaints
committee (tasked with analyzing electoral violations and which previously had a
pro-MORENA majority) now has an anti-MORENA majority.
fS8t:li Mexico City Security Secretary Steps Down, Might Run for Head of
Government
5. ~
After expressing interest in a possible run for Mexico City head of
government last week (ref A), Mexico City Security Secretary Omar Garcia Harfuch
resigned September 9, saying in a video he would "collaborate with Claudia
Sheinbaum, who with her vision and leadership will give continuity to the
country's transformation." Mexico City's constitution requires officials with a role
in police forces to step down before the electoral process begins (September 10)
if they intend to run for public office in the city. Garcia Harfuch leads potential
MORENA and opposition candidates in almost every poll.
fS8t:li Pablo Vazquez Becomes Mexico City's New Security Secretary
6. ~
Mexico City Head of Government Marti Batres announced September 9
Under Secretary of Citizen Participation and Crime Prevention Pablo Vazquez
Camacho would replace Garcia Harfuch as Security Secretary. Vazquez has
worked four years for Mexico City's Secretariat of Citizen Security (SSC). In his
role as Under Secretary, Vazquez implemented and coordinated violence
prevention and reintegration programs, including the "Cease Fire" program to
reduce gun violence and homicides and the "Reconnect" program to prevent
recidivism in first time criminal offenders, according to media outlets Milenio and
La Silla Rota. Prior to SSC, Vazquez worked for the federal Security Secretariat
(SSPC) and in the then-Prosecutor's General Office. Outside of government, he
has been a guest criminology professor at the National Institute of Criminal
Sciences in Mexico City. Vazquez has a bachelor's degree in international
relations from the Mexico Autonomous Institute of Technology and a master's
degree in criminology from the London School of Economics and Political Science,
according to press reports. La Silla Rota reported Vazquez also studied organized
crime in Sicily and Macedonia.
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~
Former MORENA Senate Leader Ricardo Monreal Will Not Run for Mexico
City Head of Government
7. ~
After finishing last in the MORENA presidential contender selection
process and after Omar Garcia Harfuch's resignation and potential entry to the
Mexico City head of government race, former MORENA Senate Leader Ricardo
Monreal announced September 12 he would not run for Mexico City head of
government. Predicting the candidate selection would come down to either
Garcia Harfuch or lztapalapa Mayor Clara Brugada and noting he had no chance of
winning the MORENA nod, Monreal said he did not want to cause divisions within
the party. In a series of interviews, Monreal also said he had no interest in
serving as a cabinet member in a potential Sheinbaum administration and would
now focus on teaching, writing, and "hop[ing] for better times." Yet on the same
day Sheinbaum announced Monreal as her campaign's organization and territorial
coordinator, and former Interior Secretary Adan Augusto Lopez as her political
coordinator.
8. f5ffi:fl Comment: Monreal went from being one of the most powerful figures in
the ruling coalition to an outcast in only a few years, mostly because of his open
disagreements with Lopez Obrador. His addition to Sheinbaum's campaign
despite having a close relationship with her shows he is willing to collaborate,
although likely in exchange for positions for his close advisors. On September 12,
media reported Monreal's daughter would run for mayor of Cuauhtemoc, the
Mexico City borough where Monreal served 2015-2018. Meanwhile current
mayor of Cuauhtemoc Sandra Cuevas (PRD), who reportedly also has close ties
with Monreal, is trying to secure the opposition's candidacy for Mexico City head
of government. End comment.
~
Criminals Targeting and Killing Prosecutors in Guerrero
9. ~
Criminals killed two Guerrero prosecutors within a week's time mid
September following attacks against two other prosecutors in July (ref B) and
August. Criminals assassinated the state delegate of the Federal Attorney
General's Office (FGR) in Guerrero, Fernando Garcia Fernandez, while he drove his
vehicle to his office in Chilpancingo September 12. First reports noted armed
men appeared to coordinate the attack as they shot at Garcia from two
vehicles. In addition, criminals kidnapped from his home and then killed the
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recently appointed Guerrero state attorney general's office (FGE) regional
prosecutor for the Tierra Caliente region, Victor Manuel Salas Cuadras, in Coyuca
de Catalan September 9, according to Proceso. Security officials found Salas' body
with approximately 50 gunshot wounds. In a separate late August incident, media
reported 20 armed commandos kidnapped Patricia Jacqueline Salgado, recently
appointed as head FGE prosecutor in Coyuca de Catalan. Authorities later located
Salgado alive but have made no arrests thus far. Interior Secretary Luisa Maria
Alcalde said during the September 11 presidential press conference there was a
pattern of attacks against prosecutors in Guerrero in recent months, which was
related to recent law enforcement arrests and seizures.
fS8t:ij Guadalajara Mayor Launches Gubernatorial Campaign
10. f5i:H::li Guadalajara Mayor Pablo Lemus (MC) launched his campaign for Jalisco
governor during his second annual mayoral address on September 12. "I want to
ask for your support to build a social and collective project," Lemus announced.
He called for party unity, and specifically welcomed MC national coordinator
Dante Delgado's representative despite the rift that emerged in August between
Jalisco MC and the national party (ref C). Jalisco Governor Enrique Alfaro, Nuevo
Leon Governor Samuel Garcia, Monterrey Mayor Luis Donaldo Colosio, and other
MC leaders from Jalisco and Nuevo Leon (the two states MC governs) all attended
the event. Lemus highlighted the presence of former Jalisco Governor Emilio
Gonzalez (National Action Party - PAN) and University of Guadalajara (UdeG)
Rector Ricardo Villanueva (Hagamos, affiliated with UdeG). Polls show Lemus
holds a commanding lead over rivals from across the political spectrum.
(U) Mexican Congress Hears Testimony on Alien Life
11. (U) Congress heard testimony on unidentified aerial phenomenon (UAP)
September 12, from experts including from Mexican journalist Jaime Maussan
and former U.S. Navy pilot Ryan Graves, who previously testified before the U.S.
Congress. The hearing was to debate language on UAP in the Aerial Space
Protection Law which, if approved, would make Mexico the first country to
formally acknowledge the presence of alien life on Earth. Experts asked
legislators to recognize UAP, guarantee airspace securit y, and allow UAP to be
studied. Experts also presented to Congress two alleged alien corpses and videos
of Mexican pilots' encounters with fast-moving flying objects during flight. After
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the hearing, Graves lamented the display took away from his and other pilots'
experiences with UAP and expressed disappointment with Maussan's
"unsubstantiated stunt." Scientists have discredited previous alleged alien
corpses Maussan presented as evidence of alien life.
(U) Figure 1: Mexican journalist Jaime Maussan presented t he alleged remains of non-human beings to
Congress. (Photo credit: Reuters)
Signature:
SALAZAR
Drafted By:
Cleared By:
Approved By:
MEXICO:Moreno, Sergio A
POL:Cortazar, Eduardo
POL:Karimi, Amanda
EXEC:Tejeda, Maria de los Angeles
POL:Naranjo, Brian
POL:Karimi, Amanda
ECON:Conlon, Steven
PD:Harder, J
INL/PROG:Okwuje, lfeoma
CONS/AG:Bernsteen, Gregory
EXEC:Johnson, Mark
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC Routine; WHITE HOUSE
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WASHINGTON DC Routine; HQ USNORTHCOM Routine; DEPT OF
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